Tensions in the Middle East have escalated as Israel braces for a possible airstrike on Iran, following a recent missile attack from Tehran. Intelligence and military decision-making experts suggest that while the situation is precarious, there are still steps that could prevent a full-scale regional war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, sticking to his deterrence doctrine, said, “Whoever attacks us – we attack them,” at a security cabinet meeting Tuesday night. The statement followed Iran’s launch of about 180 ballistic missiles at Israel earlier this week. Despite the aggressive stance, Israeli officials have told their American counterparts that their response will be “calibrated,” with the final list of targets still under consideration.
According to Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, potential targets for Israeli retaliation could include Iranian military sites, such as missile infrastructure, communications centers, and power plants. However, experts believe that Israel is less likely to attack Iranian oil or nuclear facilities because of the high risk of provoking a severe Iranian counterattack that could threaten regional stability, particularly the oil production sites of U.S. allies in the Gulf.
U.S. President Joe Biden, while not openly negotiating, has suggested that discussions are underway regarding Israeli strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure, which has contributed to a rise in global oil prices. Israel’s recent actions against Hezbollah have surprised many, including the assassination of the group’s leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and a ground incursion into southern Lebanon.
Norman Roule, a former senior CIA official, has suggested that Israel could target Iranian facilities crucial to domestic gasoline and diesel production while sparing export facilities, in order to avoid justifying Iranian retaliation against Gulf state facilities and to limit the impact on crude prices.
The conflict between Israel and Iran has so far been limited to airstrikes, covert operations and proxy militias due to the geographical distance between the two nations. Iran has shown restraint in its military engagements, with its air attacks on Israel carefully calibrated.
Regional powers such as Egypt and the Gulf states have sought to avoid being drawn into the conflict, with Gulf ministers reportedly holding talks with Iran to assert their neutrality. The United States has expressed support for Israel but is unlikely to commit ground troops as it has in past Gulf wars.
The recent attack on Israel by Hamas fighters on October 7 and the subsequent Israeli retaliation in Gaza have already had devastating consequences, with thousands of casualties and displacement. With the US presidential election on November 5 approaching, Biden’s influence over Israel’s military decisions may be limited.
Calls for action against Iranian oil facilities have emerged in Washington, with US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham advocating harsh strikes on refineries to cut off the regime’s cash flow. However, such actions could provoke Iran and alarm neighboring Arab states wary of the potential repercussions.
Oil prices have remained relatively stable despite the ongoing global conflicts, hovering between $70 and $90 a barrel. Analysts say OPEC could handle the loss of Iranian production but would face challenges if the conflict spreads to affect the oil capacity of key producers such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates.
